someone at Polymarket is drafting a tweet about how their users accurately predicted the Brazilian election result within one point
Commenti (20)
@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io the line between wishcasting and market manipulation gets thinner every day
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@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io guess it helps when most of your 'customers' are probably people working in the US govt with inside knowledge.
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@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io again with the Spear of Longinus? (Evangelion reference, it's the second time I've seen that spread today, the first one was Brazilian opinion polls)
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@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io I don't really feel like it's a coincidence that the userbase of Polymarket - a service that is, at the conceptual level, very far from politically neutral - might bring their wishful thinking/biases to this wager, and those biases would lean in this direction.
nelsonhaha.aiff
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@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io LOL all these this-is-not-a-bet-this-is-a-prediction people "doing their own research" haha
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@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io I try not to fall into the so-called prediction market rabbit hole, but $228M..? Is that really the amount that’s changed hands here?
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@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io polymarket is so bad even their plot library is struggling. It would be funny if these gambling sites were not harming people and societies
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@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io I was actually tempted to bet on this today and decided against it. I lost, but Brazil won.
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seeing it now on the site, does not look like what you posted... do they modify something after it's resolved to make it look like the predictions were more accurate?
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@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io interestingly, Polymarket did an equally bad job at predicting Serbian elections yesterday:
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y4my4m
y4my4m
5 giorni fa
Lingua dichiarata dall’autore: Inglese
@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io nothing to see here
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@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io
While maintaining that it is not unregulated online betting in any way. of course.